The problem here is you are giving this particular villain credit for thinking on a higher level. If you have been watching him and have a good read here, then your play is fine. But, thinking generally, you are probably behind in this situation more than you are ahead. Would you agree?

Whether or not the villian is a thinking player he does the same things but for different reasons. As a thinking player he also knows that he puts a lot of pressure by raising the flop with his entire range, value hands like sets, semi-bluffs with flush draws, and on occasion air. I'm discounting total air though in this spot.

If he's not a thinking player then he may even be overvaluing top pair in this spot. He still has sets and semi-bluffs in his range. We don't really know the player type with so few hands but whether he's on level 1 or 2 he does a lot of the same things but for different reasons.

Regardless we keep his entire range in the hand by flatting the flop. If you're folding every time somebody raises you on the flop and you have an overpair then regs are going to catch on and punish you later on. Obviously if the flop were J23 rainbow then there aren't any legit draws in his range therefore he's polarized to sets and bluffs. Since not many players are going to bluff in this spot against an EP raise we would be correct to fold on the flop. With the presence of the flush draw it becomes closer and we set a plan for getting it in on any non-heart turn. The turn is actually a fantastic card because we pick up additional outs with a potential straight for the time we were outflopped. As for the results of the hand:


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $54.50
MP: $52.65
CO: $52.25
BTN: $49.25
SB: $51.75
BB: $50.70
UTG: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ad As
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 2d Jh 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, CO raises to $10, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $7.25

Turn: ($23.75) 3s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero raises to $43 all in, CO folds

Different player types will show up with different hand ranges here. Now if this hand were against a passive fish running 22/6, then yes, you will most likely be against the nuts. But a LAG or TAG opponent has the ability to show up with more semi-bluffs which makes this closer. This play was designed to get the most out of drawing hands or a misplayed KK/QQ postflop. 

I will say that it is obviously a high variance play because the semi-bluff portion of their range is going to have decent pot equity against an overpair here. My main reason for posting this hand was to illustrate the thought process of not manipulating my opponents range by jamming the flop and to pick the optimal line against his entire range of hands.

Either way it's a fun spot.   

So that's all it takes to get you to fold an overpair, one simple raise? Without the presence of a potential flush draw then yes, it's a pretty clear fold. The flush draw muddies the waters though. I ran it through pokerstove with a  range of sets, KK/QQ and suited aces with hearts and AA has 57% equity against that range. These hands are also likely given a nut draw and overcard. I don't think it's at all optimistic considering the villian is shaping up to be a TAG. If he ran 27/5 over the few orbits then I think it's also more likely to be a fold considering they're less likely to apply pressure with their draws.

I'm curious though, what percentage of the time are you folding overpairs to a single raise HU with an obvious draw on the board? Or is it the EP raise and my preceived tight range that has you leaning towards a fold?

Not that it really matters but this exact same scenario came up in a new DC video posted yesterday by newmanmi and he played the hand exactly the same. Villian was a TAG facing Newman's UTG+1 raise. Flop comes Q5ss4. Cbet gets raised, he calls and check/ships the turn versus 64s. 

I'm certainly never folding and always jamming AA here

What does jamming accomplish? You fold out portions of the range you're ahead of. You price out the draws and send bluffs packing. I think jamming is about the worst decision you could make in this spot.

Okay but you do understand that there's only about 20 hands on the opponent so image hasn't been build up yet. In this hand shoving, whether it be you or anyone else, narrows the range of hands they stay in with to those that are either crushing AA or has decent pot equity. The point of calling and getting it in on any non-draw completing turn is that they put in more money on their bluffs, possibly feel committed when they pair up on a bluff, and have decreased equity to continue with their flush draws. I can guarantee you that any competent player who decides to continue with this hand will say that shoving is worse than calling when deciding to continue.

If you're an aggro player then great, soak up your image. The point of the hand was to illustrate the best line against multiple ranges. All you've done is said how aggro you are and what you would have done when that doesn't take into consideration the lack of info on the opponent or what my image may have been with more hands together.

Right, the move that takes that into consideration is the fold I mentioned in the first place  

Okay, I'll give you that much.