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2010 NFL over/unders
Posted: 07-13-2010 12:20 PM |
Over/unders for total wins is up this year. As always, I prefer picking under for two reasons:
1. Injuries hurt teams, and a key one (QB, LT, etc.) will cost a team 3+ wins, but it's rare that a bad team will be in position to benefit from such a thing happenening to their opponent more than once per season.
2. The numbers for all the teams average >8, which is mathematically impossible to achieve, meaning there are some good, safe unders out there.
For this year's picks, I love:
Chicago under 8. Last year, the only pick on this site that I got wrong was Bears over, but I managed to wimp out of making that one at the last minute, so it didn't even cost me real $. They went 7-9 last year, and this year they:
a) have a much tougher schedule
b) added Mike Martz as OC (Umm, guys, he hasn't been effective in 5 years. Just so ya know.) when their already-thin offensive talent level doesn't even mesh with his play-calling style
c) may now actually be the worst team in the division (thanks to another good offseason by the Lions)
Does that sound like an 8-8 team to you?
Denver under 7.5 Josh McDaniels is not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. I'm okay with choosing character guys over the most talented guy available, as long as they're reasonably similar on the field. McDaniels appears to be comfortable with picking up character guys that have no business drawing a pro paycheck and letting his best talent leave without getting a red cent in return. Last I checked, that's not a winning formula. But most importantly, he's reached the Zorn Zone. They started 6-0 last year, then finished 8-8. The league has shown that they've figured him out. He's yet to show that he knows how to adjust to those adjustments.
St. Louis under 5 One of the easiest things to do is to just bet under on the worst team in the league. There's always one team that goes 3-13 or worse. And no matter how good Bradford is long-term, this year he's just a rookie on a team that can't protect him. Oh, and how's this for ineptitude? The Rams were 32nd (last) in scoring last year and 31st in points allowed. They could be MUCH MUCH better than last year and still not hit 5 wins.
I also like (but don't love):
Tampa Bay under 5.5 Somebody's got to be the second-worst team in the league, and if I had to pick someone this instant, I'd pick these guys.
San Diego over 11 Look at their schedule. Seriously, go pull it up. It looks like a college football schedule, there's so many creampuffs on it. They play 4 games against teams with winning records. And one of those is Arizona, who will be hurt significantly by the loss of Warner. I think Norv Turner is a terrible coach, but c'mon. If you play Absolute garbage week in and week out, you're bound to win a few. Even if they manage to give away 5 games, it's still a push.
Let me know what you guys think of these and other numbers. It's my favorite bet of the year. 4 months of action for 1 measly bet! |
Arrr, matey |
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