 trs912
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| Joined: 03 Oct 2007 |
| Total Posts: 1741 |
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This has been bugging me
Posted: 03-30-2010 09:53 AM |
I don't have the hh or anything. I wasn't really going to post but this has been bugging me. I'll try my best to re-create it. I'm probably not completely accurate about stack sizes/blinds, but I'm not too far off.
I'm fairly deep in a tournament. There were about 120 players (out of several thousand) left and I had a slightly above average stack. IIRC the blinds were 500/1000 and I had about 50,000+ chips. Im in the BB with KK. Cutoff minraised and button called. Both had me covered. SB folded. I shoved. Cutoff folded and button called with AJ and obviously hit.
I realize this might be results oriented, but I keep thinking that I should have just raised (not shoved) and taken it from there. I'm in pretty decent shape chipwise and I felt like I got greedy. Thoughts? |
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Re: This has been bugging me
Posted: 03-30-2010 10:57 AM |
| I guess you could have called or made a smaller 3bet. He probably wouldn't have shoved over you with AJ and you would have seen the flop but I think it's important to have the "in it to win it" mentality not the " I'm in pretty decent shape chipwise" mentality so I think you did the right thing by getting it all in. |
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Macio
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| Joined: 10 May 2006 |
| Total Posts: 3451 |
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Re: This has been bugging me
Posted: 03-30-2010 11:07 AM |
cooler, nothing you can do other then be supprised to see this guy call a 50bb shove with AJ where he can be FLIPPING at best agianst any lower pair or WAY BEHIND against AK AQ not to mention AA/KK.
I think by shoving you made him to call as he put you on air as he would expect AA KK to 3bet rather then shove.
NH and WP and sorry to see you loose it. In the long run hands like this wins you turnaments. |
back to the GRIND !!!!!!!!!
NL$100 - running badly as always  |
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bobby7
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| Joined: 05 Apr 2004 |
| Total Posts: 5426 |
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Re: This has been bugging me
Posted: 04-02-2010 09:56 AM |
your raising isnt greedy, its conservative. greedy would have been to make a smaller raise to get action.
when people have you covered they tend to play even worse than they normally do because they have that feeling of invincibility, its why im never too terribly concerned that im a shortstack at a table as long as i have a playable stack. in general people are more exploitable when they have you covered so long as you both have playable stacks and so i would want to take advantage of it and raise smaller and if they hit so be it but its a calculated risk.
your allin raise is supposed to get weak hands like AJ to fold, but its just what happens sometimes when people have you covered, they feel like they are god and can do no wrong. |
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Palled33
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| Joined: 19 Jan 2009 |
| Total Posts: 241 |
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Re: This has been bugging me
Posted: 04-03-2010 09:00 PM |
Were you intentionally playing on the fact that it looks like a squeeze? If so that is deeeply awesome.
Overbetting ftw in tourneys imo, it puts the pressure on opponents in a situation where individual hands matter more. It maximises your return on your hand superiority in the sense that making a suboptimal amount of value from a hand matters less because every hand won keeps you ahead of the blinds and that winning hands big puts you into situations where you end up with a hudge stack which then disproportionately maximises your edge in following hands and increases your £ev+ in a situation where it's getting really deep that matters. I feel like pootling along just above the average leaves you involved in too many shovefests where you theoretically have no edge. I mean sure you might be better at shovebotting than your opponents, but there is an accepted 'best play' standard for most tourney pros below 20BB and the better the play/higher the buy-in the more you'll be in that neutral position. I know TRS is way above 20BB here but big stacks are critical to getting the most money out of tourneys in relation to time spent imo. Not only do they increase your edge if you're good, but they keep you out of the lottery and they help you to absorb your mistakes. I'm willing to risk even a decently above average stack on a situation where I have only a small edge. This doesn't, obv, mean I wont calculate; if I have no idea what their ranges are then I don't just gamble, but I like to be pushy when I confidently think I stand to double up etc
The above is just my conjecture ofc, but am quite interested in talking to people about it.
I do feel that on a mathematical basis this shove might be unexploitable. Even if it's not, given that people's calling range could well be wider than perfect in this situation, the shove is certainly playable subject to debates about how wide from perfect people's calling ranges may well be (ie above). If any math pros (the8bit?) feel like attempting (I know we haven't got full stats) an exercise in determining if a calling range can beat this shove then I'm definitely interested. I'm also really interested in debating the validity of a range anyone comes up with that beats this shove given the way this situation surely makes a wider range more likely.
This also gives me an idea for a discussion which I would put in another thread but sure it would get boring replies because of the lack of context/prior discussion. (Obv, mods feel free to make it into another thread.)
Is a 50/50 (exact) flip a perfectly good $p/h play in a tournament, assuming that you stand to be knocked out or double up. That is to say, assuming an opponent who covers you were to move all-in and then the software fails and means you have perfect knowledge that revelas the villain's hand and shows you to be exactly 50% to win the hand, would calling be sensible? This is a pure math question obv, hence the unrealistic situation with the exact 50/50 and the perfect knowledge so I'm not interested in any answers that say, you can't know etc hence it's stupid blah. My contention is that in this exact situation, surrending the flip is -ev (assuming some money invested) whereas accepting it is strictly neutral ev and that therefore you have to be willing to flip. Plus the actual poker contention that a big stack is $ev.
Sub-question (about actual poker decision-making ): assuming you have to be willing to flip, what are the implications for pushing your edges? What degree of error should you allow before you take this kind of plunge. (obv at this point, the don't ever know 100% argument becomes applicable  ) How far ahead do you have to think yourself (51%? 55%? etc) to be willing to gamble?
Or,
assuming you shouldn't flip, same question, though assuming more conservative replies.
Obv willing to be proved wrong/right on any of my points/questions and hope this causes a furious debate
P.S. sorry for ridiculous overuse of brackets lol |
Tunnel vision tilting you. |
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Macio
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| Joined: 10 May 2006 |
| Total Posts: 3451 |
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Re: This has been bugging me
Posted: 04-06-2010 05:10 AM |
you asked so many questions here that I am not sure where to start
I think it all depends on the mentality. If you are there to win the turney, I think you have to take every flip you can and just hope to win. Once you have big enough stack those flips are even more profitable.
Obv I would not say calling AJ for 20bbs is a good play from the guy in above post (unless he had like 120bbs  ) as it was not even close to flip the way it was played.
Pushing edges - if you think its a flip I am more then happy to shove rather then call. When you shove you have the chance to actully get other guys to fold that would flop with you and if they are not as flip happy as we are, they it a win/win situation. You either get the chips if they fold or win it every other time.
I will make another tread on turney aproach i will try out in the next few weeks playing small entry turneys to see will it give me some advantge. This strategy will include going all in with draws etc and a lot of flipping. |
back to the GRIND !!!!!!!!!
NL$100 - running badly as always |
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