 apluscan
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| Joined: 10 Nov 2006 |
| Total Posts: 2 |
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Pott Odds
Posted: 11-11-2006 12:03 AM |
| Can somewone tell me in laymans terms how to calculate the number of outs. I understand the nuts draw but I don't understand how you get 21 outs , 20 outs etc. Also , is there a fast easy calculation for it that you can do in your head? |
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bobby7
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| Joined: 05 Apr 2004 |
| Total Posts: 5345 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-11-2006 12:05 AM |
http://www.twodimes.net
by best friend for hand odds, you could do it in your head but its just easier using a calculator. i like this one because you can use it for pretty much all games you would ever play online. |
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sdocy
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| Joined: 30 Jul 2006 |
| Total Posts: 49 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-12-2006 06:14 PM |
Outs are simply the number of cards in the deck that will give you the hand you are after. If you are on a flush draw and have 4 of your suit, then there are 9 cards left in the deck of that suit, so you have 9 outs. If you have an open-ended straight draw (e.g. KQJT), then any A or 9 will give you a striahgt, so you have 8 outs. If you have a gutshot straight draw (e.g. AKJT) then any Q will give you a straight draw, so you have 4 outs. And if you have both a flush and a straight draw, you likely have 15 outs (9 for the flush and 8 for the straight, but there are 2 cards which overlap). Basically just think of all the cards that you would like to see next, and that is your outs.
A very general calculation you can use is to double your outs and that gives you a decent approximation of how likely you will hit your hand. So for 8 outs, that is 16% which is about 6:1. The actual odds are always a little better (5:1 in this case), since there are a little less than 50 cards left in the deck, but it is close. Your best option is to just memorize the most common draws you will be on.
Open-ended straight about 5:1
Flush draw about 4:1
Gutshot about 10:1
Hitting set on flop about 8:1
Flush and straight draw anout 2:1
Getting a boat or better with your set about 4:1
stephen
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-12-2006 08:03 PM |
"If you have an open-ended straight draw (e.g. KQJT), then any A or 9 will give you a striahgt, so you have 10 outs."
I know this was just a typo, but you have 8 outs to hit an open ended draw (assuming none of your outs are dead)....
One of the many helpfull things on this site is the pot odds "cheat sheet" found at this link...
http://www.poker-strategy.org/default.aspx?PageContentID=46&tabid=93 |
Ivey doesnt win money, money wins Ivey. |
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sdocy
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| Joined: 30 Jul 2006 |
| Total Posts: 49 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-14-2006 06:59 PM |
yep, fixed it, thx
stephen
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MadMat
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| Joined: 29 Nov 2004 |
| Total Posts: 2368 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-14-2006 11:11 PM |
Boating up when you hit a set is actually about 3:1
(7 outs on turn, 10 outs on river - 7/47 + 10/46 = 36% chance of boating up)
Mat |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-15-2006 12:57 PM |
Your outs are the cards in the deck that will five you the best hand... You can calculate the percentage of hitting one of those cards like this:
Chance to hit ON THE NEXT CARD:
1-3 Outs: Outs x 2 = % of hitting
3-11 Outs: (Outs x 2) + 1 = % of hitting
12+ Outs: (Outs X 2) + 2 = % of hitting
Example:
(2 outs x 2) = 4 %
(9 outs x 2) + 1 = 19 %
Then calculate your pot odds:
Pot odds: take the call you have to make and devide it by the call you have to make + ALL the rest on the table. Deviding your call by the pot you can win right after the call is just the same.
Example:
- Preflop: button, SB and BB in the pot, the other players folded. BB is 10 $. Button and SB call. So preflop there is 30 $ in the pot.
- On the flop: You have two spades and the flop comes down two spades and a heart. Everyone checks and so do you.
- On the turn: There comes a diamond. SB bets 15 $, BB folds, and now its up to you. What to do?
- What are your pot odds? Well there was 30 $ in the pot before the flop, no extra bets on the turn and the SB now bets 15 $ on the river. This means there is 30 $ + 15 $ = 45 $ on the table. You have to call 15 $ if you want to see the river. So if we use the formula from above: pot odds = 15 $ (your call) / (15 $ + 45 $) = 0.25 = 25 %.
So now we compare the pot odds to the chance of making the flush you're after. Because in this situation you are after a flush, you have 9 outs (the nine spades left in the deck). So (9 * 2) + 2 = 20 %.
So you have 20 % of making your flush on the river, but you have to pay 25 % of the total pot for it... So what do you do? You fold, because it's not worth it. 20 % (of making flush) < 25 % (the price for the next card).
So a little summary:
Pot odds: call / size of the pot after you call = percentage that the next card costs
Making hand odds: (outs * 2) + 0/1/2 = percentage of hitting
And then:
Pot odds > Making hand odds : FOLD
Pot odds < Making hand odds : CALL
You do have to understand that my shortcut is only good for THE NEXT CARD. Making a call on the flop with a flush draw equals a 34 % chance of making the flush on the turn OR river... but only 20 % of making it on the turn... so you have to consider the extra bet you might face if the turn doesn't come your out.
Check out this for some odds on drawing hands and such:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_%28Texas_hold_%27em%29#After_the_flop |
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Lurker
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| Joined: 27 Jul 2005 |
| Total Posts: 73 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-16-2006 10:17 AM |
| You must also consider that if you have an OESD but there are two suits on the flop, you don't have 8 outs but 6 since top and bottom of the same suit might give someone a flush. However in a HU pot this isn't just as likely so you can compensate by saying you have 7 outs. This compensates for the times he has flush as well as the times he doesn't but still calls on river. This is a whole new world and much harder to calculate so focus on the basics first. |
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fraddstar
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| Joined: 21 Nov 2006 |
| Total Posts: 51 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-21-2006 07:00 PM |
I like that idea of doubling the outs you have to get the percentage chance of catching on the next card.
eg: flush draw - 9 outs so 18% of hitting it on the turn.
You can also multiply the number of outs you have by 4 to get the % of making your hand on either the turn or the river.
in this case 9 outs X 4 = approx 36% chance of making your hand.
This wont give you exact answers but will be extremely close because there is approximately 50 cards in the deck.
What i find interesting is, that if you have 15 outs eg: an open ended straight flush draw such as 8h.9h.10h.jh you have a 60% chance of making a flush or straight with 2 cards to come meaning you are a favorite over eg: pocket aces!
Another stat i find interestng is that the probability of flopping a flush draw or made flush with 2 suited hole cards, is almost exactly the same as a pocket pair flopping trips or better.
Probability for doing either is about 12% or 1 in 8 1/4.
So on an entirely different topic, this means that suited aces with weak kickers eg A6s are overated, and should only play them if your getting in cheap (same with small pocket pairs in my opinion)
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sdocy
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| Joined: 30 Jul 2006 |
| Total Posts: 49 |
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Re: Pott Odds
Posted: 11-22-2006 06:38 PM |
I'll pay alot more to see a flop with 22 than I will with any raggish suited cards, for the simple fact that it is so hard to read that someone has a set, while the flush is out there for everyone to see.
stephen
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