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Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-08-2005 10:33 AM |
Hi,
Does anyone know where I can find a table showing the probability of winning from pre-flop given
a) the 2 starting cards
b) # players.
I'm interested in trying a micro-limit NL experiment where I just go all in if it's looking good.
Thanks,
fcmisc. |
Texas Calculatem and Poker Office blog
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 Acesup
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| Joined: 26 Oct 2004 |
| Total Posts: 344 |
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Re: Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-08-2005 10:39 AM |
Here's a link to a pretty decent odds page. Hope it helps.
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php |
We live in an age in which we revere machines that can think and fear men who try to |
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Re: Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-08-2005 11:04 AM |
Acesup,
Thanks for posting the link.
However, what I'm looking for is my probability of winning before the flop is seen.
For example, if I'm dealt AhAd and there are 3 players, what will my probability of winning the hand be?
Thanks,
fcmisc |
Texas Calculatem and Poker Office blog
Poker News
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Acesup
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| Joined: 26 Oct 2004 |
| Total Posts: 344 |
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Re: Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-08-2005 12:10 PM |
I can't help there fcmisc. I don't know of anything that makes these calculations based on the number of players at the table. Please let me know if you do find anyting.
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We live in an age in which we revere machines that can think and fear men who try to |
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DMBFan23
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| Joined: 07 May 2004 |
| Total Posts: 456 |
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Re: Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-08-2005 01:18 PM |
yo,
check out pokerstove.com. good stuff. you can assign hand ranges to your opponents, specify a board (or lack thereof) and it gives you your equity. |
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Re: Pre Flop Stats Request
Posted: 03-09-2005 02:26 AM |
| Thanks for the link DMBFan23. From looking at the site PokerStove is probably just what I need. I'll give it a go in my next Poker session.... |
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Am I an idiot?
Posted: 03-09-2005 02:49 PM |
Right, now that DMBFan23 has provided me with the useful software I'm ready to get going...
Basically, if you assume that an opponent will go all in with AA-99,AKs,KQs,JTs, then your equity values for the following hands are
Hand Equity
AA 80.75%
KK 71.28%
QQ 66.26%
JJ 48.49%
A Ks 48.12%
K Qs 41.68%
I therefore recon that it's worth going all in with AA-QQ and AKs (just in case they fold and/or there's dead money from the blinds).
I've only done one all in so far with QQ and won the hand, though the text wizzed by too fast for me to work out what happened as I was typing this.
The P&L of this system is $1.06 so far. I'm buying in with $1.00, and am going to risk $10.00 overall with this strategy...
Will this work???
fcmisc.
P.S. Does anyone know how I'd work out the probability of being dealt AA-QQ or AKs?? |
Texas Calculatem and Poker Office blog
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DMBFan23
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| Joined: 07 May 2004 |
| Total Posts: 456 |
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Re: Am I an idiot?
Posted: 03-09-2005 03:36 PM |
your probability of gettingdealt AA (or KK or QQ or any pocket pair) is 1/221. so, 3/221 you'll get AA or KK or QQ. AKs is about 2/3 as likely as AA (just count out all the ways to make AKs, and all the ways to make AA, and you'll see what I mean), so we're talking ROUGHLY 3.66/221, or (very roughly) about 1.75% of the time. I did this all in my head but that's the order of magnitude of what we're talking about.
BTW, I usually find pokerstove to be helpful doing analysis away from the table, it's too cumbersome to make real time decisions with. |
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Acesup
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| Joined: 26 Oct 2004 |
| Total Posts: 344 |
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Re: Am I an idiot?
Posted: 03-09-2005 03:43 PM |
| Check out the site I first gave you fcmisc, it has the odds of being dealt AA, KK,AK,etc. |
We live in an age in which we revere machines that can think and fear men who try to |
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yes I am an idiot!
Posted: 03-09-2005 04:26 PM |
Thanks for reminding me Aceup! I'd just worked them out manually by myself when I read your reminder. Doh!
Could anyone who's interested let me know what they think and whether or not there are any significant flaws in my calculations. Please also keep this unbeatable strategy top secret!
Here are some exciting sums for anyone who's interested...
(stats are here 
The chances of being dealt on of my "ALL IN" (AA-QQ or AKs) is
3 * 0.45 (AA-QQ)
+
0.3 (AKs)
=
0.165
From my own calculations...
P(AA-QQ) = 3 * (3/52) [first card A-Q] * (3/51) [once we have an A-Q, the next card must be A-Q]
=
.136
P(AKs) = (1/13) [An Ace first] * (1/51) [next card must be king of Ace's suit] * 2 (two ways [of getting this - AK or KA]
=.30
Summing the 2 gives 0.166 which is close enough to that website.
Anyway, to continue...
Assuming I play a $0.01/$0.02 table it's going to cost me $0.30 in blinds per 100 hands.
For each 100 hands I'll get 1.66 premium hands.
On average, I'll win 66.6% of these (average the equity values from the previous post).
I'm going to asssume a 5% rake.
I recon I'll atleast double up when I win and I'm depositing $1.00 a time. So for every 100 hands I'll get atleast
0.95 [rake] * 1.66 [# hands I'll get] * 0.666 [Winning Percentage] * 1.00 [profit]
= $1.05
So to conclude, I expect to make atlesat $1.05-$0.30=$0.75 per hundred hands played if one player calls.
Flaws in my calculations:
I won't always be betting $1.00 as it's a lot of effort to redeposit after EVERY blind.
I'll be getting some dead money from folded blinds.
A lot of players will see my miniscule all ins with hands not within my Premium Hand Range.
More than 1 player might call me. This should still prove profitable but will increase the variance of my returns.
Conclusion
Playing on $0.01/$0.02 tables, I should make over $0.75 per 100 hands played. |
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